HORSE RACING – 2018 PREAKNESS STAKES PICKS

A SUPER HORSE?

The Kentucky Derby was first run in 1875.

Up until this year, 1918 was the wettest day in the history of that prestigious race (2.31 inches).

But after 2.44 inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs on May 5, 2018… that record fell big time.

Journalists, handicappers, trainers, jockeys and heck, anyone who cared at all about the Derby wondered how the deluge would affect the favorite, Justify.

His trainer Bob Baffert had been boasting about the big powerful red colt despite the fact that he had only three races under his belt and never crossed the finish line as a two-year old.

So, we wondered: Would Justify be able to handle the conditions and beat nineteen other entrants in front of the eighth largest crowd in Derby history (157,813)?

Those questions were answered when Justify, did indeed live up to the hype.  He not only won the Kentucky Derby, but he did it in stunning fashion.

With the track a sloppy mess in the pouring rain, Justify came out clean from gate 7 and stayed right behind the pace setter, Promises Fulfilled.  They hit the half-mile mark in a blazing 45.77 seconds.

But, around the turn, when Promised Fulfilled faded to finish 15th, Justify maintained his composure and fought off all other competition to a 2.5 length victory.

His performance impressed because he withstood a screaming hot early pace in difficult conditions and he used his above-average maturity to fend off the charging competitors.

Baffert said after the Derby, “That’s the best Kentucky Derby-winning performance of a horse I’ve had… He just put himself up there with the greats.”

Fellow trainer Steve Asmussen (of Gun Runner fame) said, “The winner was brilliant… “It’ll be exciting to see Justify go on.”

Chad Brown, trainer of Derby Runner-up Good Magic said, “Justify looked like a big monster… We thought he was the horse to beat and it was true.”

And, Promises Fulfilled trainer Dale Romans: “It was an unbelievable performance by the winner, on this track, going that fast… He never stopped. He may be a super horse.”

IT’S HIS TO LOSE 

So, now here we are: Preakness Stakes Day, the second leg of the Triple Crown.

It’s going to rain a lot.

The distance is shorter than the Derby (1 & 3/16 miles).

And, Justify has 7 other competitors which is the same number American Pharoah faced in 2015, the smallest field since 2000…

But, the new questions for Justify include: Can he handle the quick two-week turnaround and repeat his tremendous performance on another sloppy track?

I think the answer is: YES.

First, Justify raced a clean Derby.  He did not endure much bumping and grinding as several of other competitors which helped him to not expend too much energy.

Also, the Preakness is less than a mile and quarter which will help if he is a little tired.

Second, Baffert has said that despite a minor heel abrasion and a few scratches after the Derby, Justify looks fine.  He’s also trained well in the meantime.

Third, only three other Derby horses will be competing against him in the 8 horse field (Lone Sailor, Good Magic and Bravazo).

Bolt d’Oro’s connections waivered on bringing him in to challenge Justify, then begged out.  I think that says something.  Like – they know they would have no chance.

Fourth, only one horse is set up to really challenge Justify in the Preakness and that is Good Magic, the second-place finishing horse in the Derby.

While Magic is a talented colt and probably would have won the Derby if Justify was not there, he ran the race of his life and still could not beat him.

Yet, with all of this promise for Justify winning the Preakness and the magnanimous belief in his talent, horse players all know: anything can happen.

82-year old trainer D. Wayne Lukas of Preakness hopefuls Bravazo and Sporting Chance admitted this week,“Justify is the horse to beat” and “he’s clearly the best horse”.  But, he also said “It’s his Triple Crown to lose.”

Which makes me think, what factors could contribute towards our super horse losing the Preakness?

Concerns about that heel bruise sustained during the Derby for one.

When Baffert took Justify around to meet the press the day after the Derby, the colt refused to put weight on his left hind leg.

Later, after an independent exam, it was determined to be a minor “common” heel bruise seen in horses after really wet races that feel hard on the horse’s hoofs.

The staff fitted the colt with a temporary “three-quarter shoe” to take pressure off the sore spot and then Justify “galloped” five days later.  All reports coming out of Baffert’s barn now indicate that he’s wearing a full shoe and is fine.

But, what if that sloppy track exacerbates Justify’s heel bruise and he peters out at the end of the race?

The good news is that Baffert addressed the issue very quickly, and in the two weeks since the Derby Justify has “jogged [soundly]”and “galloped very strong” in practices.

Also, no one knows if Justify has enough left in his tank.  The Preakness will be his 5th race in just over 12 weeks.

Still, Baffert seems to know what he’s doing (uh- yeah). Every horse he’s won with at the Kentucky Derby that went on to the Preakness has won it (4-4).

WHO COULD CHALLENGE JUSTIFY?

As mentioned previously, the Derby Runner-Up Good Magic will mount an offensive against Justify today.

His trainer, Chad Brown, has been very positive towards his horse’s chances.  He’s said that the horse looks “very fit” and “his energy level is where we want it to be.”

Brown also told reporters that he thinks the race will unfold very similarly to the Derby where Good Magic stalks Justify and waits to pounce.

Justify will break from Post 7 (on the outside) and probably able to get away clean. Brown said Good Magic will be inside at 5 and will have to “get a clean break and save some ground, not let [Justify] get too far away.”

But, his horse has also done a lot of racing in a short period of time, just like Justify.  Good Magic will see his 3rd race in six weeks.

Still, there is confidence in Brown who is a trainer on the rise having just won the Preakness last year (his first Triple Crown win) with Cloud Computing and grabbed the last two Eclipse Awards as the best trainer in the country.

The bottom-line is that Good Magic is good enough to win the Preakness (if Justify falters).  He’s got the stamina to handle the distance, he’s shown to be very professional and is a consistent hard worker.  His running-style is also ideal for this race and he’s in great shape.  He could just get the job done.

Quip is another horse that may give Justify a little trouble.

Owned by the same group as Justify, he will race from Post 1 on the rail.  He’s considered a talented long-shot who won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and is well-rested compared to four others in the Preakness who are just coming off a two-week layover from the Derby.

But, I do have concerns about his young trainer Rodolphe Brisset who has never had a Triple Crown race before and his jockey Florent Geroux who has never won a Triple Crown Race.

However, I’d still include him in my exotics.  This horse may get squeezed at the rail and not like the mud.  Or, he could get a good break and his racing style (near the lead) could benefit him.

Of the 5 other contenders, it’s up in the air to me.  Each of the remaining horses have to break well and get good racing luck to place.

I do like Lone Sailor from this bunch and have been keen on him since handicapping the Derby.  He’s got the speed, had been improving and likes the slop. 15-1 are good odds here for him and the less crowded field may benefit his racing style.

I also hear good things about Diamond King who will be ridden by Javier Castellano from Post 4.  This will be a big step up in class for this colt and he hasn’t raced since April, but the word is he is improving and the trainers could tell he is comfortable, has a lot of good energy, and has been “happy” at Pimlico this week.  Of course, it would be a major upset if he did well today. But with a 30-1 odds, he might be worth taking a betting chance on.

TRIPLE CROWN AHEAD?

My final word is that after Justify’s dominant Derby performance, there seems to be no big reason(s) not to like him to win the Preakness today.

He’s got arguably the best trainer in the world very high on his chances with a shorter distance.  It should be easy for him.

But, it’s still a horse race and Justify has to get the job done.

THE FIELD (by post position)

1. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 12-1

2. Lone Sailor, Tom Amoss, Irad Ortiz Jr., 15-1

3. Sporting Chance, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1

4. Diamond King, John Servis, Javier Castellano, 30-1

5. Good Magic, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 3-1

6. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 20-1

7. Justify, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 1-2

8. Bravazo, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, 20-1

 

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