BREEDER’S CUP PREVIEW FROM CHURCHILL DOWNS (2018)

Hello All!  Apologies for being away from this blog for a while. I’ve been writing for another sports website (The 49ers HUB.com) since the NFL preseason.  It’s been a great learning experience working with a team of dedicated writers and editors who dole out assignments each week.  I plan to keep that going through the end of this football season (the 49ers are not going to make the post-season, if you haven’t heard.  Ahem.)  But, I am seeking another sports writing position for another site as we speak…

In the meantime, we have one of the most prestigious events for horse players this weekend to talk about: the annual BREEDER’S CUP WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS.  This year, it will be held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky (home of the Kentucky Derby) on Friday & Saturday (Nov 2-3).

Since 1984, the Breeder’s Cup is a series of fourteen Grade 1 races open to qualified international thoroughbreds which take place over two days on both turf and dirt.

Friday’s races are open for “future stars” only or (2-year-olds).  The day is capped off with the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  This race will spotlight some of the best and brightest talent currently on the road to the Kentucky Derby.  And, yes, Bob Baffert has the favorite (Game Winner) who he thinks is good enough to win Triple Crown Races.  More on that below.

Saturday features 3-year-olds+ and the two biggest races of the day are the $4 million Breeder’s Cup Turf and $6 million Breeder’s Cup Classic.  I will also fill you in on the field for these and who I like to win below.

For more information on the other races this weekend, see the full schedule here.

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE (Fri, Nov 2 | 6:05 pm ET) NBCSN

This Grade 1 race on dirt at 1 1/16 miles is run on the main track and should showcase speed.  We will have six pace runners who will be vying for the front, so a mid-pack type of runner will likely prevail here.

By Post-Positions with morning line odds and trainer:

1. DUELING, 20-1 – J. Hollendorfer
2. MONEY, 30-1 – W. Calhoun
3. DERBY DATE, 30-1 – D. Lukas
4. TIGHT TEN, 30-1 – S. Asmussen
5. WELL DEFINED, 20-1 – K. O’Connell
6. COMPLEXITY, 5-2 – Chad Brown
7. MIND CONTROL, 20-1 – G. Sacco
8. STANDARD DEVIATION, 12-1 – Chad Brown
9. GAME WINNER, 8-5 – B. Baffert
10. KNICKS GO, 30-1 – B. Colebrook
11. CODE OF HONOR, 5-1 – C. McGaughey III
12. GUNMETAL GRAY, 10-1 – J. Hollendorfer
13. TOPPER T, 30-1 – R. Tracy, Jr.
14. SIGNALMAN, 20-1 – K. McPeek

PREDICTION:

Bob Baffert’s Game Winner is the favorite and the best 2-year old Californian that has won every race he’s been entered this year (3) by a combined 11 3/4 lengths.  After this colt’s performance at the American Pharoah Stakes, Baffert said he thinks this one’s name will be on a plaque in the Churchill Downs’ barn next year. That kind of confidence from the Hall of Fame trainer alone is reassuring.

I also like what Code of Honor has done so far.  While he has never raced at this distance before, his performance in the Champagne at 1 mile early in Oct, coming in second behind Complexity was impressive.  He stumbled out of the gate, but made up ground late even after a wide turn.  With John Velazquez riding him that should help his chances even more.

The East Coast representative is Complexity.  Trainer Chad Brown has raved about this “super talented and very fast” colt.  So far, he’s not yet proven he can go this distance and make two turns, which is a concern, but Brown thinks he will handle it just fine.  That’s good enough for me.

Gunmetal Gray is an intriguing newcomer.  His racing style should set up well to place in this race and his second-place finish to Game Winner in the American Pharoah Stakes is something to take note of.  He could be dangerous and it’ll be interesting to see how he performs.

I’m putting Well Defined on my card because Mike Smith will be riding him.  Well, he also showed some talent finishing first at the 1 1/16 mile Florida Sire in Reality Stakes in September by a big margin.

1. GAME WINNER
2. CODE OF HONOR
3. COMPLEXITY
4. GUNMETAL GRAY
5. WELL DEFINED

 

BREEDERS CUP TURF (Sat, Nov 3 | 4:56 pm ET) NBC

This Grade 1 race runs a whopping 1 1/2 miles on grass for 3-year olds+.  Several European horses will be competing, as turf is very popular over the pond.  It’s gaining more traction in the US and I hope it becomes more mainstream soon.  I really enjoy a good turf race.

1. TALISMANIC (GB), 12-1 – A. Fabre
2. ENABLE (GB), 1-1 – J. Gosden
3. CHANNEL MAKER, 12-1 – W. Mott
4. ROBERT BRUCE (CHI), 10-1 – C. Brown
5. MAGICAL (IRE), 10-1 – A. O’Brien
6. ARKLOW, 30-1 – B. Cox
7. GLORIOUS EMPIRE (IRE), 12-1 – J. Lawrence, II
8. LIAM THE CHARMER, 30-1 – M. McCarthy
9. QUARTETO DE CORDAS (BRZ), 30-1 – I. Wilkes
10. HI HAPPY (ARG), 20-1 – T. Pletcher
11. SADLER’S JOY, 30-1 – T. Albertrani
12. WALDGEIST (GB), 9-2 – A. Fabre
13. HUNTING HORN (IRE), 30-1 – A. O’Brien

PREDICTION

If you watch any race this weekend, make this one your pick just to see the European 4-year old filly in action, Enable.  What she’s done is quite remarkable.  Since May 2017, she has won eight races in a row.  The last six of those have been at 1 1/2 miles distance on either turf/synthetic.  And, these races have been very prestigious.  Two of them have been wins at the Arc de Triomphe which some consider Europe’s most important race.  It is also the world’s second richest turf race.  She is simply the best turf horse, but the question mark for her is if she can handle the travel from Europe and do what other Arc winners haven’t done: win a Breeder’s Cup Turf.  She will also be ridden by Frankie Dettori, one of Europe’s most celebrated jockeys.

One to keep an eye on is Waldgeist, the 4-year old British horse who placed fourth in the Arc behind Enable this year, but won four in a row previously including the Prix Foy where he beat out Talismanic.  If Enable stumbles, this horse could scoop it up from her.

Another reason to tune into the Turf is to see Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien’s horses in action.  The Bob Baffert of Europe has two in this race, including Magical, worth a look after her G1 win at Ascot in the British Champions Fillies’ & Mares’ Stakes. Granted, she did not do well in the Arc where Enable triumphed, but she’ll be ridden by jockey Ryan Moore who is arguably Europe’s best jockey.

Godolphin owned Talismanic won this race last year.  The 5-year old has a most impressive career resume and while he didn’t perform well at the Arc this season, he is in similar form to where he was in 2017.  He will also have nice betting odds if his morning line holds up.  Should be included in exotics.

There are so many other horses in this race that deserve a look, but I’ve zeroed in on the 7-year old Glorious Empire who will be ridden by the well-respected jockey, Julien Leparoux.  At 12-1 odds, this is a nice one to include on the card.

PREDICTION

1. ENABLE
2. WALDGEIST
3. MAGICAL
4. TALISMANIC
5. GLORIOUS EMPIRE

 

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC (Sat, Nov 3 | 5:44pm ET) – NBC

The granddaddy of all Breeder’s Cup races, the Classic is open to fourteen 3-years-old+ colts and is run at 1 1/4 miles on dirt.  American Pharoah won this race in 2015, Arrogate in 2016 and Gun Runner in 2017.

I’ve heard handicappers say that this field isn’t the most talented as in year’s past.  That may be true, as there is a lack of super elite thoroughbreds here like in the past.  However, there are so many other really talented horses here which makes this fun (and hard) to get a feel for who will cross the finish line first.

By Post-Positions with morning line odds:

1 – THUNDER SNOW (IRE), 12 -1 – Owned by Godolphin, this 4-year-old colt has primarily been run in Europe, but has had experience in America with the 2017 Kentucky Derby when he absolutely bombed out. Since then, he has matured into a winning race horse, beating Baffert’s West Coast at the Dubai World Cup in March.  He hasn’t run on dirt since then, but you can’t count this one out.  The odds here are reflective likely of his rail draw and previous bad experience at Churchill Downs.  But, I think these are good odds to bet on and would include him in exotics. If he gets a good break, he will be a contender to finish in the top 3.

2 – ROARING LION, 20-1 – This colt is considered an “elite European turf” horse, but he has never ridden on dirt before. Eleven of his twelve starts have come on grass, but those wins have been spectacular.   And, he has stamina along with a desired racing style (stalker) which will put him in contention at one point or another.  At these odds, this could be a big payoff.  I’m worried about his lack of experience and being on the inside without many options, but this one is tempting with Frankie Dettori up.

3 – CATHOLIC BOY, 8-1 – In nine starts, this horse has never finished worse than fourth. He also is a fresh win off the Travers Stakes in August with a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in that race, plus two prior wins in June and July.  He looks strong, always shows up and has versatility to get the job done.  I like this one to be a front runner and if he can keep up with the faster horses, has a real chance.

4 – GUNNEVERA, 20-1 – I’ve long been a fan of this heavily raced 4-year-old colt who seems to keep on trying. He stumbled in the Dubai World Cup earlier this year and had an injury, but did come back last month and finished second behind Yoshida at the Woodward.  He’s a great closer with a lot of experience and if the pace collapses up front, he could do well.  This price is very tempting.

5 – LONE SAILOR, 30-1 – Another closer, this 3-year old has raced at Churchill three prior times, including a second and third place finish. This is a plus for him along with a recent win at the Oklahoma Derby in Sept, breaking a 10-race losing stretch.  Still, he’s another good horse that always puts in the effort and has stamina to keep up with this distance.  I just don’t think he’s got the goods to compete with the big boys.

6 – MCKINZIE, 6-1 – He was one of the favorite youngsters leading up to the Triple Crown races this season before injury took him off the Derby Trail. Trainer Bob Baffert really liked his chances and there is a sense this horse is truly back after winning the Pennsylvania Derby after returning from six months off.  With Mike Smith on his back, I like this horse’s chances in the top five if not to win.

7 – WEST COAST, 5-1 – Another Baffert trained horse, this one will be ridden by John Velazquez.Baffert said recently both McKinzie & West Coast are “both really outstanding horses”, but this colt recently lost to Gun Runner at the Pegasus World Cup in January, Thunder Snow at the Dubai World Cup in March and then to Accelerate at the Awesome Again Stakes in Sept. He could definitely finish in the top and Baffert “expects a big race from him.”

8 – PAVEL, 20-1 – The last big win of this 4-year-old’s career came at Churchill Downs in June at the Stephen Foster Handicap. But, he recently finished second to Accelerate at the Pacific Class in August by twelve and a half lengths.  He had four fourth place finishes prior to that.  Could he be maturing now and improving?  Likely, he’s not up for the bigger competition here.

9 – MENDELSSOHN, 12-1 – If you read my Kentucky Derby picks back in May, you may remember how I gushed over this European horse trained by the Bob Baffert of the UK (Aidan O’Brien) since he won the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths. He’s been training up to this moment and O’Brien recently said that the colt has been progressing with “every run since.”  I’m keeping him in the back of my mind and hope he can finally prove to the world what a great dirt champion he can be.

10 – YOSHIDA (JPN), 10-1 – The first time this 4-year-old horse raced on dirt was in September during his last start at the Woodward and he won it over Gunnevera. All prior ten starts were on turf.  Japanese-bred, this colt’s ownership group includes the China Horse Club and SF Race who funded Justify.  His connections think he’ll be “very game” and placed in the middle of the pack to storm down hard like he did at the Woodward.

11 – MIND YOUR BISCUITS, 6-1 – This colt is the biggest earner for a New York-bred horse (ever) and is trained by a relatively inexperienced trainer (Chad Summers). He deserves a look because despite being a winning dirt sprinter for most of his career, he has had good success the last two races at 1 1/8 miles.  Even though he has never gone 1 1/4 miles and is 5-years-old, this is a Cinderella story that has people like me jazzed about the idea that he could upset the big boys here before going to stud in Japan next month.    Most importantly: Word is – he’s in peak form now.

12 – AXELROD, 30-1 – This Florida-bred 3-year-old colt has been improving and has proven himself to be successful at this distance when he came in 2^ndto McKinzie at the Penn Derby in Sept. Call me crazy, but I like these odds for a long-shot to place.

13 – DISCREET LOVER, 20-1 – An incredible 44 race history since 2015 for this 5-year old colt. He recently won the prestigious 1 1/4 miles Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup over Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn and finished third at the Whitney in August behind Yoshida and Gunnevera.  He’s a closer and needs to have the pace collapse ahead for a win which seems unlikely.

14 – ACCELERATE, 5-2 – The “favorite” of this bunch has won five of six races this year, his 5-year-old season. Three of them have been Grade 1 races.  He has also won his last 3 starts at this distance and has had one of the highest speed figures in 2018.  But, this outside post is a concern because of his tendency to break slow. The good news is that he has a versatile running style and doesn’t need the lead.  Also concerning is 20 of Accelerate’s 21 career wins have come on California soil. Will this be too much of a culture shock for him?

PREDICTION:

In the past, this race has favored speedy horses. Only two in contention have had a Beyer Speed Figure greater than 115 this year (according to Michael J. Cox, handicapper) and those include Accelerate and West Coast.  I did not like how West Coast lost badly to Thunder Snow in Dubai earlier this year and hasn’t raced since March.  And, it is telling that jockey Mike Smith chose to ride on McKinzie instead of West Coast for Baffert in this race. Also, I am worried about Accelerate’s outside post and trouble breaking quickly.  I wavered between speed winning this race and the pace collapsing. Honestly, this race is really difficult to handicap.  The safest bet for me is going with some speedy horses, those with good wins recently and I’m throwing in a closer for good measure.

1. MCKINZIE
2. MIND YOUR BISCUITS
3. CATHOLIC BOY
4. ACCELERATE
5. WEST COAST
6. THUNDER SNOW

ROARING LION* (LONG SHOT)

 

 

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