NFL – 2019 SUPER BOWL PICK & END OF SEASON STATS THAT STICK OUT
Another Super Bowl and the Patriots are in it, again. Yey. Can’t you just tell my enthusiasm? Like others who are tired of New England in the big show, I’d rather not have to pick them to win again. But, that’s where this is going.
Here’s why the Patriots sway me to their side: It’s true that the Rams defensive line is amazing. But, New England’s offensive line has been so outstanding this post season, Brady has yet to be sacked in 90 passing attempts. Yet, even if the Rams are able to neutralize Brady and the game is kept close, it will all come down to the performance of LA’s young quarterback, Jared Goff. I’m doubtful he’s up to the challenge at this point in his career.
Embed from Getty ImagesDon’t get me wrong, the third year QB has talent, good chemistry with Coach McVay, the ability to throw an accurate deep ball and keeps improving. He’s just not been consistent enough for me to buy into his potential to be elite, clutch and mistake-free in the biggest game of his career. I also think that not having his friend and wide receiver Cooper Kupp around has hurt his confidence. (Kupp sustained a season-ending torn ACL in Week 10.)
Sure, it is possible that Goff morphs into super man on Sunday. If so, the Rams have a chance to bring home the trophy. But, if not, the Patriots will win their sixth Super Bowl since 2001.
STATS THAT STICK OUT – REGULAR SEASON 2018
Ben Roethlisberger, QB (Steelers)
In 2018, this 36-year-old career Steeler became only the seventh player in league history to pass for over 5,000 yards in a single season. (5,129 passing yards, to be exact.) Big Ben also broke his own franchise record in touchdown passes (34) and had his best year statistically since 2014. Despite this and the fact that the Steelers had the best Red Zone scoring percentage (76.09%), they finished the year 9-6-1 and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Rumors swirled that the locker room had been fractured and divisive in part to Antonio Brown’s pent-up frustrations with the disappointing season and former outside linebacker coach Joey Porter allegedly trying to “pit the defense against the offense in a divisive manner.” (Porter was relieved of his duties a week after the season ended.) And then there was the Le’Veon Bell situation. One of the NFL’s best running backs, Bell sat out the entire regular season due to a financial contract dispute with the Steelers. Whether or not the speculation is true about the locker room in turmoil, it is obvious that Pittsburgh has gone off the rails and needs to figure out its massive off-the-field issues. Before moving forward, they should ask themselves: How did I mismanage the issues with Bell and Brown? How did I let the culture of the locker room get so out of control? How did we botch the 2018 season with all that young talent and a Hall of Fame quarterback playing some of the best football of his life?
Ezekiel Elliott, RB (Cowboys)
For the second time in three years, this 23-year-old former Buckeye finished the season as the NFL’s leading rusher (1,434 yards). He also had the most rush attempts (304), most rushing yards per game (95.6), most touches (381) and had the most receptions on the team (77). This is even more amazing considering the fact that he was held out of the last game of the season to rest for the playoffs. His longest and fastest run of the season came during the second half of the Wild Card game against the Seahawks when he reached a top speed of 21.27 miles per hour on a 44-yard run. Still, that speed did not come close to the fastest back in the league this year, Matt Breida of the San Francisco 49ers who clocked in at 22.09 mph during Week 12 on a 33-yard run. This 5’9, 195-pound back out of Georgia Southern ran the 40-yard dash at the 2017 NFL Combine in 4.37 seconds. In comparison, the 6’0, 225-pound Elliott ran the 40 at the 2016 NFL Combine in 4.47 seconds.
Julio Jones, WR (Falcons)
Quintorris Lopez “Julio” Jones is no stranger to winning reception accolades. In high school, he was tabbed as the “top receiver” by multiple organizations and was considered the top high school player by Sports Illustrated. He was also a multiple sport athlete and was on the school’s basketball team as well as track team. During his college career for the Alabama Crimson Tide, Jones separated himself as one of the great wide receivers in college football when he set multiple school records and became the SEC Freshman of the Year (2008), BCS national Champion and SEC Champion (2009). He was selected by Atlanta in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft and since then, has become a six-time Pro Bowler and two-time receiving yards leader (2015, 2018). This season, Jones had 113 receptions for a league-leading 1,677 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. He was also the only player to average more than 100 receiving yards per game (104.8), a franchise single season record. The time is now coming for the Falcons to address Jones’ contract situation. He has two years and more than $21 million left on the five-year, $71.25 million extension he signed in August 2015. His salary was boosted by $2.8 million in 2018 because he threatened a holdout. But it is believed that Atlanta will do the right thing and soon make him the league’s highest paid wide receiver.
Aaron Donald, DE (Rams)
It is apropos that this 27-year-old fifth year defensive tackle out of Pitt is headed to the Super Bowl to face off against the greatest quarterback in the history of the game (Tom Brady). Widely understood as one of the best players in the NFL and maybe even “one of the best players to ever play the game” (as Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson recently said), Donald’s ability to sack the quarterback and force fumbles is phenomenal. This season alone, he set the record for most sacks in a season by a defensive tackle (20.5) and broke the single-season Rams franchise mark. It was also the first 20-sack season by any player since 2014. Additionally, Donald became the second player in PFF history to record 100+ total pressures over a season and he set the record for the most sack yards by a player in a single season with 183.5, breaking the previous mark of 178 sack yards. Likely to receive the Defensive Player of the Year Award, Donald will need to use every bit of his talents this Sunday to put pressure on Brady and neutralize his abilities in the pocket. If Donald is successful, it gives the Rams’ offense a chance to keep pace and possibly, grab the Lombardi Trophy away from New England for the second straight year in a row.
Derwin James, S (Chargers)
I’ve heard it said that the 2019 NFL Draft will showcase one of the best defensive draft classes in recent memory. But, 2018 had an excellent defensive draft class as well. So many great young rookies in fact, that Sports Illustrated ranked a dozen contenders for the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Their pick for the accolade was Derwin James, the Chargers No. 17 overall draft pick last year. The 22-year-old Florida State grad had 3 interceptions in 16 starts this season, 13 passes defended, 3.5 sacks, 105 tackles (75 solo), 4 tackles for a loss and 6 quarterback hits. His outstanding performance helped him get an invite to the Pro Bowl and he was voted first-team All Pro. He was also named the Pro Football Focus Defensive ROY. Statistics aside, PFF liked James’ ability to “do it all across the field”. They said he “lined up deep safety, a box safety, an outside linebacker, an inside linebacker, outside cornerback and as a slot cornerback, all on multiple occasions, and in multiple games. He had no trouble rushing the passer, stopping the run or covering outside receivers just the same as he did with smaller, shiftier slot receivers.” It’s scary to think that this young man will only improve in coming years.
San Francisco 49ers
I’d rather not put my beloved 49ers in this dubious distinction category, but here we are. 2018 certainly wasn’t the best year of the team’s existence and maybe not even the worst as they finished 4-12 and third in the NFC West. But, what the Niners did do worse than any other team was turn the football over at an alarming rate and hardly get any takeaways. Together, that is referred to as “turnover differential”. The 49ers finished the season worst in this statistic with minus -25. That is, they had 32 “giveaways” (20 interceptions plus 12 fumbles) and a measly 7 “takeaways” (2 interceptions plus 5 fumbles). Think of that. Only 2 interceptions ALL. SEASON. LONG. COMBINED. Ouch. The Chicago Bears had 27 interceptions. Yes, 25 more than the San Francisco 49ers! How does a second-year coach with the pedigree like Kyle Shanahan allow this to happen? The 49ers did experience a number of terrible injuries this past season to several key players. But, it does not excuse how awful they were in handling the football. It was a major regression from 2017 when the Niners managed a minus -3 turnover differential (which is not great if you want to win games). At least they had 10 interceptions plus 10 fumbles and limited the mistakes to 23 giveaways. Next season, we may get a healthy Garoppolo and McKinnon back, plus a refreshed roster (maybe Antonio Brown? Wink, Wink) and five new draft picks, but San Fran can’t be a competitive football team with stats that suck like this.
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